Startseite » Blog » preakness horse race trends 2024

Preakness Horse Race Trends 2024: Key Pimlico Stats To Help Find Black-Eyed Susan Winner

Preakness Horse Race Trends

Use our 2024 Preakness Stakes horse race trends to help pinpoint the winner of the big May 18 Pimlico race – the middle leg of the Triple Crown series. These key stats will highlight the best horse profiles based on past winners, which you can then apply to the final runners.

Preakness Horse Racing Trends 2024 – Put History On Your Side

You can wager with the best Preakness Stakes betting sites armed with some of the leading trends and stats. These will allow you to put history on your side ahead of the 149th edition of the Pimlico race on Saturday, May 18.

These include, 10 of the last 12 winners finishing in the top 4 in their last race, while 58% of winners since 2012 also contested the Kentucky Derby.

Key Preakness Stakes Stats 2024

  • 12/12 – Had NEVER raced at Pimlico before
  • 12/12 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
  • 12/12 – Drawn in gate 9 or lower
  • 12/12 – US bred winners
  • 11/12 – Won by a colt/gelding
  • 11/12 – Won between 1-5 times
  • 10/12 – Won over at least 1m before
  • 10/12 – Drawn in gate 6 or lower
  • 10/12 – Didn’t wear blinders
  • 10/12 – Favourites that finished in the first 4
  • 9/12 – Ran at least 5 times before
  • 8/12 – Ran at Churchill Downs last time out
  • 8/12 – Horse from gate 5 placed in the first 3
  • 7/12 – Ran in the Kentucky Derby last time out
  • 7/12 – Ran in the last 2 weeks
  • 7/12 – Winners from between gates 4-7 (inc)
  • 6/12 – Horse from gate 6 finished in the first 3 (3 winners)
  • 4/12 – Won the Kentucky Derby last time out
  • 3/12 – Winning favourites
  • 3/12 – Trained by Bob Baffert (8 wins in total)
  • 1/12 – Ran in the Kentucky Oaks last time out
  • 1/12 – Filly winners
  • 1/12 – Came into the race unbeaten

Preakness Stakes Trainer Stats

  • Bob Baffert has won the race 8 times before (1997, 1998, 2001, 2002, 2010, 2015, 2018 & 2023)
  • D. Wayne Lukas has won the race 6 times (1980, 1985, 1994, 1995, 1999 & 2013)
  • Chad Brown has won the race twice before (2022 & 2017)
  • Steve Asmussen has won the race once before (2009 & 2007)
  • Todd Pletcher has never won the Preakness Stakes

When is the Preakness Stakes 2024?

The 2024 Preakness Stakes will be run on Saturday, May 18 at Pimlico racetrack.

We’ve also got the complete Preakness Stakes schedule so you can look forward to all the other races at the two-day meeting.

📅Time/Date: 7:00pm (ET), Saturday May 18, 2024
🏇Racecourse: Pimlico, Baltimore, Maryland
💰 Purse: $2m
📺 TV: NBC Sports and Peacock
🎲 Preakness Stakes Odds: Mystik Dan +190 | Tuscan Gold +400 | Imagination +400 | Catching Freedom +400

Preakness Horse Race Stats Analyzed

Let’s look at the key Preakness horse race trends in more detail below – including the best Preakness Stakes post positions to look for in the last 20 editions.

Preakness Post Positions Between 4-7 Have The Best Records

12 months ago, we saw National Treasure win the Preakness Stakes from post position 1 and since 2015 there have been a total of three winners from the inside berth. With War Of Will (2019) and American Pharoah (2015) the others.

Since 2004 (last 20 editions) there have also been just one winner each from gates 2 and 3. Plus the same for stalls 8, 9, 12 and 13 – with none for post positions 10 and 11.

However, it’s worth noting that the Preakness Stakes can often have a lot less runners, than the Kentucky Derby so the higher post positions wouldn’t have had runners in some years.

For example, only last year in 2023 National Treasure only had to beat six other horses with seven in total going to post.

That said, it’s still worth highlighting that post positions 4, 5, 6 and 7 collectively have the best return in the Preakness Stakes since 2004.

This batch of four gates have seen a staggering 11 wins in the last 20 runnings between them – which equates to a solid 55% return.

2024 Preakness Stakes Post Positions

  • 1. Mugatu
  • 2. Uncle Heavy
  • 3. Catching Freedom
  • 4. Muth (Scratched)
  • 5. Mystik Dan
  • 6. Seize The Grey
  • 7. Just Steel
  • 8. Tuscan Gold
  • 9. Imagination

Preakness Stakes Winners and Post Positions (Since 2004)

Year Winner
Post Position
Post Position %
2023 National Treasure 1 15%
Early Voting 5 15%
2021 Rombauer 6 10%
2020 Swiss Skydive 4 10%
2019 War Of Will 1 15%
2018 Justify 7 20%
2017 Cloud Computing 2 5%
2016 Exaggerator 5 15%
2015 American Pharoah 1 15%
2014 California Chrome 3 5%
2013 Oxbow 6 10%
2012 I’ll Have Another 9 5%
2011 Shackleford 5 15%
2010 Lookin At Lucky 7 20%
2009 Rachel Alexandra 13 5%
2008 Big Brown 7 20%
2007 Curlin 4 10%
2006 Bernardini 8 5%
2005 Afleet Alex 12 5%
2004 Smarty Jones 7 20%

Are Gates 5 & 7 The Magic Preakness Numbers?

Following on from the key post position in the Preakness, it seems horses from gate 7 have had an advantage in recent times. Over the last 20 years, it’s gate 7 that has the most wins with four.

The most recent Triple Crown winner, Justify (2018), jumped from this post. Lookin At Lucky (2010), Big Brown (2008) and Smarty Jones (2004) were the others from the ‘seventh heaven’ gate.

Preakness Stakes post position 5 is also worth a big mention with three wins since 2011. The last being the Chad Brown-trained Early Voting in 2022. It’s also worth pointing out that horses from gate 5 have a top record of finishing in the first three places.

Yes, Red Route One (gate 5) missed out (4th) last year, but we’ve still seen a massive 8 of the last 12 runnings have the horse from post position 5 finish in the first three places.

Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan will come out of gate 5, while Just Steel has been handed post position 7.

Have ‘New Shooters’ In the Preakness Stakes On Your Side

Not that long ago it paid to have horses that had run in the Kentucky Derby in your corner. This was backed up with a massive 21 of the 22 Preakness Stakes winners between 1984 and 2005 having raced in the Run For The Roses a few weeks earlier.

However, this Preakness horse racing trend has shifted in more recent years. Since 2006, horses that missed the Churchill Downs race and coming to Pimlico fresher has picked up.

Bernardini (2006), Rachel Alexandra (2009), Cloud Computing (2017), Swiss Skydiver (2020), Rombauer (2021), Early Voting (2022) and last year’s winner National Treasure all DIDN’T run in the Kentucky Derby.

How Does The Preakness Stakes Favorite Fare?

Over the last 12 editions, we’ve seen three winning Preakness Stakes favorites. This works out at a 25% strike-rate.

We’ve also had 10 of the last 12 market leaders finish in the first 4 – so, even those favorites that don’t get their head in front, they are never far away. The Preakness favorite Mage finished third last year.

While this year’s market leader is expected to be the recent Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan.

Who Are The Best Preakness Stakes Trainers?

Bob Baffert Has Won The Preakness Stakes Eight Times

With Bob Baffert mentioned in the previous section, now seems a good time to remind us that the hall-of-fame trainer has a top record in the Preakness Stakes, so anything he runs should be respected.

Of course, Baffert is still banned from having runners at Churchill Downs and, therefore, the Kentucky Derby, but that just means his crop of leading 3 year-old come into the final two US Triple Crown races fresher than some.

Baffert also has a brilliant record in the Preakness Stakes – winning the Black-Eyed Susan eight times and more than any other barn (see below).

His first Preakness Stakes winner came back in 1997 with the Gary Stevens-ridden Silver Charm. While his most recent was only last year in 2023 when National Treasure scrabbled home by a head.

Of the Bob Baffert haul, he’s also seen his Justify (2018) and American Pharoah (2015) go onto land the Belmont Stakes and the Triple Crown.

This year Baffert was due to have the red-hot Preakness Stakes favorite Muth, but the horse has since been scratched from the race due to a high temperature. All is not lost for Bob Baffert though as he searches for win number nine in the race as he’s still got the Frankie Dettori-ridden Imagination.

Bob Baffert Preakness Stakes Wins

  • 2023: National Treasure
  • 2018: Justify (TC)
  • 2015: American Pharoah (TC)
  • 2010: Lookin At Lucky
  • 2002: War Emblem
  • 2001: Point Given
  • 1998: Real Quiet
  • 1997: Silver Charm

Veteran Trainer D. Wayne Lukas Has Six Preakness Stakes Wins

Of the rest, it’s 88 year-old veteran handler D. Wayne Lukas that is also worthy of respect. The Wisconsin-born trainer has mopped up six Preakness Stakes wins over the years, with the first coming way back in 1980 with Codex.

He added five more over the years, with his most recent being the Gary Stevens-ridden Oxbow in 2013. D. Wayne Lukas will be hoping to make it seven Pimlico wins in 2024 with Just Steel and Seize The Grey the Preakness Stakes runners for the Hall of Fame trainer.

D. Wayne Lukas Preakness Stakes Wins

  • 2013: Oxbrow
  • 1999: Charismatic
  • 1995: Timber Country
  • 1994: Tabasco Cat
  • 1985: Tank’s Prospect
  • 1980: Codex

Look For A Recent Run (In The Last 6 Weeks)

With a lot of Preakness Stakes runners over the years having contested the Kentucky Derby just a few weeks before then most will fit the bill here.

But it’s still a stat to look out for in case any runners bypassed Churchill Downs and also didn’t run recently. This is supported with ALL of the last 12 past Preakness Stakes winners having raced in the last 6 weeks.

The 2023 winner National Treasure bypassed the Kentucky Derby, but prior to that ran 4th in the Santa Anita Derby – which came within the magic 6 week window.

ALL of the 2024 Preakness Stakes runners have been on the track in the last 57 days or less.

Are Wearing Blinders In The Preakness Stakes A Plus?

The Preakness horse race trends also suggest that wearing blinders isn’t always a plus. Of course, many horses act well in this form of headgear.

Keeping them focused on the job at hand, plus it also helps avoid the kickback for hold-up runners. However, the stats tell a slightly different story.

Since 2012 only California Chrome in 2014 and last year’s winner National Treasure won wearing blinders. Meaning 83% of the last 12 winners DIDN’T need the headgear to win the Preakness Stakes.

2024 Preakness Stakes Blinders Runners

  • Mugatu
  • Catching Freedom
  • Just Steel
  • Imagination

How Many Preakness Stakes Winners Had Also Won The Kentucky Derby?

With Mystik Dan winning the Run For The Roses earlier his month and a likely runner at Pimlico, then many will ask – how many Preakness winners had also won the Kentucky Derby?

The answer is – we’ve seen 23 horses that have won the Kentucky Derby and then ONLY won the Preakness Stakes.

We’ve, of course, also had 13 Triple Crown winners, which would have also won both the Churchill Downs and Pimlico races.

Therefore, this means since the 1875, when the Kentucky Derby was first run, there’s been a total of 36 horses that have won both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes.

The last two winners of both races – Justify (2018) and American Pharoah (2015) also went onto land the US Triple Crown.

Recent Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan will be the latest US horse to try and keep his Triple Crown dreams alive. But will need to win the Preakness Stakes first before a possible tilt at the Belmont Stakes on June 8.

WATCH: Mystik Dan Winning The 2024 Kentucky Derby

Preakness Stakes Betting Odds 2024

See the latest Preakness Stakes odds 2024, ahead of the May 18 renewal at Pimlico.

Horse Odds
Mystik Dan
Tuscan Gold +400
Catching Freedom
Just Steel
Seize The Grey
Uncle Heavy

Note: Others on request and odds subject to change

Recent Preakness Stakes Winners

  • 2023 – NATIONAL TREASURE (29/10)
  • 2022 – EARLY VOTING (57/10)
  • 2021 – ROMBAUER (118/10)
  • 2020 – SWISS SKYDIVER (117/10)
  • 2019 – WAR OF WILL (61/10)
  • 2018 – JUSTIFY (triple crown winner) (2/5 fav)
  • 2017 – CLOUD COMPUTING (134/10)
  • 2016 – EXAGGERATOR (13/5)
  • 2015 – AMERICAN PHAROAH (triple crown winner) (9/10 fav)
  • 2014 – CALIFORNIA CHROME (1/2 fav)
  • 2013 – OXBOW (154/10)
  • 2012 – I’LL HAVE ANOTHER (16/5)

WATCH: National Treasure Winning The 2023 Preakness Stakes


Andy Newton is a horse racing handicapper who specializes in key race trends for the top events in sport around the world - including horse racing. His statistical approach to finding winners is one that has paid off time and time again - putting history on his side by finding the best profiles based on past winners. Check out the latest trends and Preakness Stakes stats from Andy on the site.