Outside the Triple Crown events, the $1,000,000 Grade I Pennsylvania Derby looks like being the race of the season for middle-distance three-year-olds on dirt over 1,800m at Parx just outside Philadelphia on Saturday, September 20. It’s the third encounter of the campaign between the Preakness second, Gosger, and fourth, Goal Oriented.
Joining them in a 10-strong field is the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes third Baeza, Ohio Derby winner Mo Plex and Risen Star Stakes scorer Magnitude. Five others without such graded form try and step up on Listed or minor victories in a superb edition of a race first run in 1979 that attained Grade I status in 2017.
Last year’s Preakness Stakes winner Seize The Grey went on to Pennsylvania Derby success, so that bodes well for the Pimlico runners taking each other on again. Unlike Triple Crown races earlier in the season, however, there’s a penalty structure here that means horses who have won graded or Listed events, or lesser contests worth more than a set prize purse, carry extra weight.
Baeza benefits from those conditions at Parx. John Shirreffs’ McKinzie colt only has a maiden success on his resume, but that hardly tells the full story. Baeza boasts three top three finishes at Grade I level behind Journalism and Sovereignty, the top three-year-olds this season. He finished a length behind the latter in the Jim Dandy last time and now meets re-opposing fourth Mo Plex off 2lb better terms.
With no penalties to carry, even the best Preakness racebooks favor Baeza over those who ran in the middle leg of the Triple Crown on May 17. The Morning Line has him favorite too, ahead of the Pimlico pair, and there’s definitely a logical case for him as the one to beat at these weights.
Hard to Ignore Baffert’s Pennsylvania Derby Record
Despite only landing the race for the first time in 2014 with Bayern, Bob Baffert is the winningest trainer in this event’s history with four victories. West Coast, Baeza’s sire McKinzie and Taiba are the barn’s other successes here. Baffert was expected to run Los Alamitos Derby scorer Nevada Beach, but relies solely on Goal Oriented.
Even off 2lb better terms with Gosger from the Preakness Stakes result in the spring, it appears that the son of Not This Time needs some improvement. Goal Oriented made the show in the valuable Grade I Haskell Stakes over the summer when again weakening as the wire approached. Two of the same horses that were too good for him at Pimlico in Journalism and Gosger proved better once more.
While Goal Oriented finished closer to the Preakness front two in New Jersey, there’s a stamina question mark hanging over him. It’d be foolish to ignore Baffert’s excellent record in the Pennsylvania Derby over the last decade or so, however, and connections will hope that, after just four career starts, this colt has the further progress in him needed now.
Gosger is one of three topweights in the line-up, courtesy of his Grade III Lexington Stakes win around Keeneland in the spring. Brendan Walsh’s son of Nyquist could’ve used a wildcard for the Kentucky Derby, but waited for the Preakness instead. Two half-length defeats at the hands of Journalism followed, first in Baltimore and then at Monmouth Park.
Despite a 2lb swing against Goal Oriented, Gosger has found enough to beat his old rival off level weights twice. In the absence of Sovereignty and Journalism, the way may actually be clear for him to have his moment to shine under Luis Saez.
Unfavorable Terms for Magnitude, Mo Plex
Like Gosger, two more in the Pennsylvania Derby line-up have 4lb penalties for past graded success. Steve Asmussen saddles Magnitude, who shot to prominence on the Triple Crown trail after an impressive Grade II romp at the New Orleans Fair Grounds only to suffer an injury setback. This other colt by Not This Time is one the barn has been patient with, then.
Magnitude landed the Iowa Derby in similarly convincing fashion on his comeback to the Risen Star. When stepped up to the highest level in the Travers Stakes, however, he ran a distant third to Sovereignty. Splitting the pair was Bracket Buster and, on a form line through that one, Magnitude will find it difficult to land a blow on Gosger and Goal Oriented off these terms.
Race conditions don’t exactly favor Mo Plex either with his penalty for Ohio Derby success at Thistledown. Jeremiah Englehart has a Complexity colt out of an Uncle Mo mare on his hands that was no match for Sovereignty or Baeza in the Jim Dandy over the summer. Mo Plex has some nine lengths to find with the second off worse terms, so it’s hard to see him turning the tables.
The Morning Line forecasts Big Truzz at a shorter price than Mo Plex following his Ellis Park Derby success. That comes with a 2lb penalty for the Pennsylvania Derby, but Brian Lynch’s son of Justify did make the show in the Grade I Woody Stephens at Saratoga earlier in the campaign. He couldn’t go the pace on that occasion, but has the pedigree to improve for tackling a longer distance.
An impressive Listed win subsequent to that trip to the Spa suggests Big Truzz is worth another crack at this level. The other four in this field are in deep.
Pennsylvania Derby 2025 Post Positions Draw & Morning Line Odds
- So Sandy (122lbs) – 15-1
- Altobelli (120lbs) – 50-1
- Magnitude (124lbs) – 6-1
- David Of Athens (122lbs) – 12-1
- Happily Delusional (120lbs) – 30-1
- Goal Oriented (122lbs) – 5-2
- Big Truzz (122lbs) – 10-1
- Baeza (120lbs) – 2-1 fav
- Gosger (124lbs)- 4-1
- Mo Plex (124lbs) – 12-1
Our Handicapper’s Verdict
Gosger is the right favorite, but Morning Line value lies with Gosger. He may be up to giving weight and a beating to his main rivals. With a 2-0 head-to-head record against Goal Oriented, Gosger could well have his number and stop Baffert from landing a fifth Pennsylvania Derby in a dozen seasons.
With race terms and conditions making life tough for Magnitude and Mo Plex, Big Truzz looks an unexposed one worth chancing to make the show. Those other four runners include two carrying 2lb penalties for minor wins, which hardly seems fair against some of the best of the rest from the Triple Crown trail.
WATCH: Gosger & Goal Oriented Run in the Preakness Stakes
